The prices of high-speed diesel (HSD) and petrol are anticipated to decrease by approximately Rs15-19 per litre in the first half of October. This potential reduction comes after two months of continuous price hikes and is primarily attributed to the appreciation of the Pakistani rupee.
The last time fuel prices saw a decrease was in mid-July when petrol was lowered by Rs9 per litre to Rs253, and diesel dropped by Rs7 per litre to Rs253.50. According to sources, calculations based on current tax rates and other factors suggest that petrol prices may decline by Rs15-19 per litre in the upcoming review.
This potential reduction is due to a 2% drop in its international price from $101 to $99 per barrel and an approximately Rs10.5 appreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar.
For consumers, this could translate into more affordable transportation costs, especially for private vehicles, rickshaws, motorcycles, and small vehicles, directly impacting middle- and lower-middle-class budgets.
Similarly, the price of high-speed diesel (HSD) could potentially decrease by Rs9-12 per litre if the government maintains the current petroleum levy at Rs50 per litre. However, if the finance ministry increases the levy by Rs5 per litre to meet budgetary goals, the reduction in diesel prices would be limited to Rs5-8 per litre.
Unlike petrol, the international market price of HSD has recently risen by about $1 per barrel to $122. This fuel is widely used in heavy transport vehicles, buses, trains, and various agricultural engines, affecting the prices of essential goods like vegetables.
The forthcoming adjustment in fuel prices will be the first opportunity for the caretaker government to make changes. Between August 15 and September 15, both petrol and high-speed diesel prices surged by Rs58.43 and Rs55.83 per litre, respectively. Currently, these products are retailed at around Rs331-333 per litre.
While the GST remains at zero for all petroleum products, the government applies a Rs60 per litre petroleum development levy on petrol and Rs50 per litre on HSD and high-octane blending component. Additionally, there is an approximate Rs22-23 per litre customs duty on petrol and HSD.
