The Pakistani government is expected to reduce petrol prices for the second time this month due to a decrease in the ex-depot petrol price. However, industry insiders predict that diesel prices will likely increase by Rs5 per litre in the upcoming pricing review, effective from June 16.
If the government maintains the exchange rate adjustment at zero, petrol prices may decrease by Rs3-5 per litre in the review. On the other hand, industry estimates suggest that the ex-depot price of high-speed diesel (HSD) will rise by Rs3.29 per litre to Rs256.29 per litre.
In the recent pricing review, the government made a minor adjustment of Re0.13 in fuel prices. If the adjustment reaches Rs3-4 in the upcoming review, the price per litre may increase by Rs5.
Calculations indicate that the ex-depot price of petrol may decrease from Rs262 per litre to Rs260.13 per litre, a reduction of Rs1.87 per litre. Similarly, the ex-depot price of light-speed diesel may range from Rs147.68 to Rs150.16 per litre.
Reports also suggest an increase in the exchange rate for the next price review, with a rise of Rs0.63 per litre to Rs286.69 per litre against the dollar, compared to Rs286.06 per litre previously.
The industry insiders mentioned that the pricing operations were provisional, and the final decision on the pricing of petroleum products would depend on the government’s judgment. The impact of Russian crude oil imports on pricing is expected in the next two weeks. However, it is unlikely to affect the current price review since the processing of the recently supplied crude oil began on Wednesday.
While Russian crude oil refined products will enter the market in two weeks, the impact on domestic prices is expected to be minimal due to the low quantity compared to the country’s consumption. The arrival of the second cargo on June 20 is not anticipated to significantly impact consumer prices until the share of Russian crude oil exceeds 30% of the total crude oil imports.
In conclusion, the government is expected to decrease petrol prices while increasing diesel prices, and the impact of Russian crude oil on prices is likely to be minimal in the current review.
