For nearly two decades, Goldman Sachs, a leading global investment bank, has been actively involved in forecasting the economic growth trajectories of various countries over the long term. Initially, their focus was primarily on the BRICs economies, which include Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
Over the past ten years, they have broadened their research scope to include projections for a diverse range of 70 emerging and developed economies worldwide.
In their most recent comprehensive study, Goldman Sachs has expanded their analysis to cover a total of 104 countries, providing insightful projections that stretch as far as the year 2075.
These long-term forecasts offer valuable insights into the potential economic landscapes and growth prospects of nations across the globe.
According to the latest projections, by the year 2075, Pakistan’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to reach an impressive $12.7 trillion. Furthermore, the GDP per capita, which measures the average income per person, is projected to stand at $27,100.
While these figures represent substantial growth and development for Pakistan, it is worth noting that its economy is anticipated to be overshadowed by the economic powerhouses of China, India, and the United States. Specifically, India is projected to emerge as the leading economy with a real GDP of $52.5 trillion and a per capita GDP of $31,300 by 2075.
Despite these optimistic projections, economists and experts at Goldman Sachs have sounded a note of caution, highlighting potential risks and challenges that could impact these long-term forecasts.
They have expressed particular concerns about the looming threats of “environmental catastrophe” and the rise of “populist nationalism.”
The term “environmental catastrophe” underscores the growing global concern about climate change and environmental degradation.
As countries continue to pursue economic growth and development, there is an urgent need to address and mitigate the adverse impacts of industrialization, deforestation, pollution, and other environmental issues to ensure sustainable and equitable growth for future generations.
The rise of “populist nationalism” poses a potential threat to global cooperation and economic integration. As countries become more inward-looking and prioritize national interests over international cooperation and collaboration, it could lead to increased trade barriers, geopolitical tensions, and economic instability, undermining the prospects for global growth and prosperity.
In conclusion, while Goldman Sachs’ long-term economic projections offer valuable insights into the potential growth trajectories of countries like Pakistan, India, China, and the United States, it is essential to approach these forecasts with a degree of caution and skepticism.
It is crucial for policymakers, businesses, and stakeholders to address the underlying risks and challenges, such as environmental sustainability and rising populism, to foster a more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable global economy for the future.
